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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."